EURUSD — shorts from supply
shortA bearish CHoCH has flipped structure your way — early trend shift in your favour. Price is drawn to a fresh supply fair-value gap at $1.12–$1.12 in premium, with liquidity resting at $1.12 as the draw.
Conditions to watch for
- Price taps the fair-value gap at $1.12–$1.12 and reacts (rejection wick / lower-timeframe shift).
- A bearish shift confirms from the zone rather than slicing through it.
- Entry stays in premium — do not chase if price leaves the discount/premium.
Arguments
- A bearish CHoCH has flipped structure your way — early trend shift in your favour.
- Unmitigated supply fair-value gap gives a defined level to trade from.
- Clear draw on liquidity at $1.12 — a logical place for the move to run.
Risks
- If price closes above the zone, it is mitigated and the idea is void — this is a level, not a certainty.
- The bias rests on a recent CHoCH; a failed follow-through would flip it back.
- Liquidity can be swept beyond the zone before the real move — size for the wick.
Score components
- Market structure+22
- Order block / FVG+14
- Premium / discount+12
- Liquidity+8
Invalidation A decisive close above $1.12 mitigates the order block and voids the short.